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Sunday, January 30, 2005

The market received mostly good news this week

The market received mostly good news this week -- and ended with only very modest gains in the indices. The inability to post gains despite moderately bullish news was the major theme of the week. That left sentiment neutral and cautious. Still, it was the first up week of 2005.
Earnings were the big story. Over 30% of the S&P 500 companies reported earnings, amidst hundreds of other reports. A little more than half of the major earnings are now out. In aggregate, the reports are good.
Operating earnings for the quarter are on target for over 17% growth for the S&P 500 in aggregate. That is a couple of percentage points higher than was expected prior to the reports coming out. The percentage of companies beating estimates is in line with historical averages, as 67% have reported above the average forecast, and only 17% have reported below. Guidance has also been reasonably good, as most companies have suggested that the first quarter outlook is consistent with Wall Street expectations. Overall, the strong growth rate in earnings is helpful to the market, and the lack of significant warnings has eliminated fears of a sharp slowdown in profit growth.
There was more good news. Merger activity remains strong. On Friday, Procter&Gamble (PG) reported that it is buying Gillette (G) for a whopping $57 billion. It was also reported that SBC Communications (SBC) is in talks to buy AT&T (T). This level of acquisitions would normally provide a broad boost to stocks.
The economic reports this past week were mixed, but certainly not bad. January consumer confidence was a bit stronger than expected, December existing home sales a bit weaker, and December durable goods orders about as expected, but basically strong. On Friday, fourth quarter real GDP was reported to have grown at a 3.1% annual rate. That was a bit below expectations of 3.5%, but is still above long-term trends, and both consumer spending and business investments trends are strong. On balance, the economic reports did not change expectations of 3% to 3 1/2% real GDP growth for 2005, and thus could be considered neutral to slightly bullish.
News from other quarters was also moderately helpful. Oil prices fell to $47.15 a barrel from $48.53 over the past week, ahead of an OPEC meeting on Sunday. The 10-year bond yield was unchanged at a still very low 4.13%.
Such a collection of news might normally give the market a boost during the middle of earnings season. This is a period when the market often starts to put fears of bad reports aside, and looks to a brighter future. This would seem particularly likely after declines such as have already occurred in 2005.
Yet, good earnings reports often didn't give stocks much of a jump. This was particularly true in the technology sector. Microsoft (MSFT) had a very good report, but was up only about $0.30 for the week. Semiconductors had some good reports including Texas Instruments (TXN) and Novellus (NVLS), but the SOX index was up only marginally for the week. Companies that had disappointing reports such as Amgen (AMGN) or Caterpillar (CAT) got whacked.
The best earnings numbers came from basic materials. Several oil companies had outstanding reports. Dow Chemical (DOW), US Steel (X), and DuPont (DD) also posted impressive numbers. There were some decent reports from drug companies, but on Friday Merck (MRK) was hit when a court ruled a patent on Fosamax was invalid. The beleaguered sector ended down for the week. Banks also failed to supply leadership, as the sector was down on the week as well. With drugs, financials, and technology languishing, the market lacks leadership. There is little conviction that energy or materials can provide that over the months ahead. Food and consumer staples stocks did well as investors sought security, but are also unlikely to lead the broader market.
The week thus ended much as it began. Sentiment remains very cautious and few are willing to bet on a significant rally. It was the first up week of the year, but disappointing in the bigger gains might normally have occurred given the collection of news that arrived.